(NewsWorthy.news) – A Chinese academic specializing in Russia has predicted that Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine will fail. Feng Yujun, a professor at Peking University, wrote in the Economist that Russia and Ukraine had completely different political viewpoints and that the war is not likely to end soon.
Yujun noted in the op-ed that Ukraine’s resilience against the invasion thus far has been “extraordinary” and that, though dwindling, there is still broad international support for Ukraine. He also recognized that Russia is still recovering from deindustrialization after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and that due to remaining in power for so long, Putin was locked inside an “information cocoon” lacking accurate intelligence. Yukun concluded that these four factors would be key to determining the outcome of the war in Ukraine, suggesting that Russia’s failure in Ukraine is inevitable.
China’s leader Xi Jinping has claimed that China is the main peacemaker in Ukraine despite the country facing global criticism for supporting Russia’s war effort. Feng’s analysis marked a departure from the Chinese government’s usual message; despite taking a stance of neutrality, Beijing has opposed the West’s sanctions against Russia and banned criticism of the Kremlin on Chinese social media. China has itself had vested interests in the country since before Putin’s invasion, having bought up 9% of Ukrainian farmland.
In October 2023 Kyiv listed three Chinese energy giants – China Petrochemical Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China National Petroleum Corporation – as “international sponsors of war”. In April 2024 the U.S. reiterated its concerns about how deeply involved China is in supplying and modernizing Russia’s military, despite Beijing stopping short of directly supplying the Kremlin with weapons. According to U.S. officials, China supplied over 70% of the $900 million in machine tools imported by Russia in the last quarter of 2023, which were likely used in the production of ballistic missiles. China also provides 90% of the microelectronics Russia imports, which are used to produce aircraft, tanks and missiles.
Xi is in a conflicted position regarding the war in Ukraine; on the one hand Beijing stands to benefit from the weakening of Ukraine’s backers, but on the other hand China’s leader is keen to keep access to US investment and Western markets. Yujun commented on how isolated Putin’s regime has become since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, highlighting Putin’s inability to stop the expansion of NATO’s borders.
Copyright 2024, NewsWorthy.news
